Five factors defying the downward pressure on college enrollment

Many local papers around the country are running stories about colleges that have increased enrollment -- maybe even setting new records for freshman or total enrollment. While some might be in states where the demographics aren't as bad, we are seeing institutions defy the higher education market conditions that are troubling others.

My hunch is that enrollment success is a more complex story than enrollment declines. Increasing enrollment probably depends on a mix of factors that will vary across the institutions enjoying this success. On other hand, declining enrollment is probably a result of being unprepared for the demographic and economic pressures.

What can one make of these success stories? I think each institution has the numbers at its disposal to determine what factors are driving this; and more importantly, to assess how sustainable this growth might be over the next five to ten years.

Here are my thoughts on some of these growth factors:

1) Investing in strategic enrollment management skills: I think this may be particularly true at growing public institutions. My northeastern perspective may skew this, but I think private colleges have invested more in enrollment management than public institutions (and I am comparing like to like, not Ivy League to a four year regional). My hunch is that growing public colleges got serious and strategic about enrollment management compared to those who are struggling.

2) Attracting students outside of your region: Despite a smattering of students from here and there, the core enrollment of most American colleges and universities comes from a tightly defined geographic area. If your home territory will be producing fewer high school grads, you can try to expand your geographic reach around your state and the nation. It's not easy but some institutions seem to be doing it. Georgia State University is one example.

3) Attracting international students: The University of Nebraska at Lincoln has announced a new enrollment record. It also announced a 16.9% increase in international students who now make up about 10% of total enrollment. I think many would be surprised at the number of institutions where international enrollment is over 105 of total enrollment and the fastest growing segment.

4) Drawing students from community colleges: Both of the schools mentioned above touted an increase in minority students in their freshman class. Many of the "good news" enrollment stories this month have included that theme. I doubt that these institutions are increasing the overall minority participation rate by enrolling students who otherwise would not have gone to college. My guess is that they are drawing students away from community colleges or less prestigious four year institutions.

5) Creating a distinctive experience: In a challenging higher education market, distinctive institutions have an opportunity to stand out and draw students. I had never heard of Holy Cross College at Notre Dame, Indiana before today's article in Inside Indiana Business about their 4.5% enrollment increase. Doing this in the Midwest, one of the most demographically challenged college markets, is no easy feat. Their success could be grounded in their experiential education approach, their Catholic identity or something else not immediately apparent on their website.

So a mix of any of the above, or other factors that I'm missing, probably explain enrollment growth at institutions in the fall of 2014. A bigger question for every college and university is: how sustainable are any of these strategies over the next decade? There is no simple answer but college presidents, board members and others who want a thriving campus must grapple with this issue if they want today's success to mean something over time.

Michael Meotti is the Principal of Ed Policy Group and formerly served as CT Commissioner of Higher Education and President of the United Way of Connecticut. Check out Mike’s blog about higher education trends, student success, college readiness and education technology.